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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/05 10:54

   Corn Futures Higher at Midday; Soybeans, Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 4 
to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 4 
to 19 cents lower; wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower. The U.S. stock market 
is weaker with the DOW down 125 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 110 points 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up 
1.50. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
$14.00 higher.


   Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with two-sided action after 
the strong Thursday close as trade works to balance forecasts and outside 
markets with profit-taking posssible into the weekend. Short-term forecasts 
show plentiful heat for the Western Corn Belt along with mixed precipitation 
this weekend, while better coverage looks in place for the Eastern Corn Belt 
with some back and forth in the forecast as we head into mid-August. The daily 
export wire has remained limited with the strong dollar and better South 
American competition short term. Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by 
driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures dropping 21% over 
the middle of the week. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength 
fades, especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the South. On the 
September chart, support is the fresh low at $5.61 1/2 scored two weeks ago 
with the lower Bollinger Band just below that at $5.60, with trade moving back 
above the 20-day moving average at $5.99 after fading through it Tuesday and 
the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.29. 


   Soybean futures are 4 to 19 cents lower at midday with September leading as 
trade tries to consolidate the Thursday rebound into the weekend. The daily 
export wire reported 132,000 metric tons (mt) of new-crop soybeans sold to 
China and an additional 132,000 mt to unknown destinations. Further demand will 
wait for breaks. Meal is $13.00 to $14.00 lower and oil is 170 to 180 points 
higher. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in recent days. South 
America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to persist 
until September, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of 
pod-fill season with heat and scattered rains short term before bigger rains 
expected to the east and north-central areas this weekend. Basis is fading a 
bit at processors and exporters in recent days as early harvest in the south 
draws closer. On the September soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $13.97 
which we bounced off at midweek, with the Upper Bollinger Band at $14.90 as the 
next round up.


   Wheat futures are 3 to 11 cents lower at midday with early gains fading as 
trade waits for spillover from outside markets. We also wait to see how euro 
values hold up, and if further shipping progress is made out of the Black Sea 
with pace starting to pick up a little out of Ukraine. Plains weather looks 
warmer and drier this week with moisture needing to be built before planting 
time with harvest wrapped up except for the north growing areas, while spring 
wheat sees heat with harvest just around the corner with potential rains to 
slow the start if confirmed. The dollar is moving back to the highs post-jobs 
report, which can be a limiting factor if sustained into midmonth. The KC 
September chart has resistance at the 20-day moving average above the market at 
$8.61 which we tested before fading, with the Lower Bollinger band at $8.20 the 
next round down.   

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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